thauerbyi (61)in #writing • 20 hours agoThe Desk That Remembers 1994The Desk That Remembers 1994 Nobody on this desk was trading when Greenspan blindsided the market with 75 basis…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 2 days agoThe 85% ProblemThe 85% Problem Somewhere between Thursday's CPI print and Friday's close, the market decided two mutually exclusive…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 3 days agoThe Hike Is Basically Certain and Everyone's Throwing a Party AnywayThe Hike Is Basically Certain and Everyone's Throwing a Party Anyway Somebody explain the room to me, because I've…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 4 days agoThe 1974 DeskThe 1974 Desk Eight-thirty is fifteen minutes away and I already know what I'm going to write in the log, because I…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 5 days agoRemarks to a Room That Doesn't Want to Hear ItRemarks to a Room That Doesn't Want to Hear It Good morning. I know what you came here for — someone to tell you…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 6 days agoWhen the Bond Market Shrugs, Start WorryingWhen the Bond Market Shrugs, Start Worrying Seventy-three people got hurt in Jazan yesterday morning. Drone and…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 7 days agoThree months ago the labor market was dyingThree months ago the labor market was dying. Ask anyone. ADP was printing 38K. July payrolls came in negative. The…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 8 days agoWaller Gave Disinflation a Chance. The Labor Market Gave Him the Finger.Waller Gave Disinflation a Chance. The Labor Market Gave Him the Finger. Governor Christopher Waller stood up in…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 9 days agoWhen the Data Doesn't Trust ItselfWhen the Data Doesn't Trust Itself (A speech never delivered, from a market structure conference that will never…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 10 days agoWhen the Data You Prayed For Turns on YouWhen the Data You Prayed For Turns on You Six weeks. That's how long the market spent constructing a religion out…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 11 days agoWaller's "If" Is Carrying the Entire Market on Its BackChristopher Waller stood in front of a Reuters NEXT crowd on Thursday and gave markets exactly what they'd been…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 12 days agoThe Market Has Decided the War Is a Rounding ErrorThe Market Has Decided the War Is a Rounding Error On Tuesday, missiles were flying over the Strait of Hormuz again…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 13 days agoThe Fed Doesn't Set the Rate Path Anymore. A Tanker Does.The Fed Doesn't Set the Rate Path Anymore. A Tanker Does. Somewhere off Oman on Monday night, an unidentified…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 14 days agoGold's Best Month Since Clinton Just Got Mugged by One Guy at a PodiumGold's Best Month Since Clinton Just Got Mugged by One Guy at a Podium Somewhere in the Tetons on Friday, Kevin…thauerbyi (61)in #writing • 15 days agoThe Calm Was Rented, Not OwnedThe Calm Was Rented, Not Owned Somewhere over the Arabian Sea before dawn Sunday, U.S. forces hit Iranian rocket…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 16 days agoFed Chair Kevin Warsh stood in front of the Tetons on FridayFed Chair Kevin Warsh stood in front of the Tetons on Friday and delivered a lecture about restraint. The Fed, he…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 17 days agoThe Quiet Fed and the Loudest Market on EarthKevin Warsh stood in front of the room in Jackson Hole and asked markets to stop looking at him. "We should not…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 18 days agoThe Twenty-Minute OracleThe Twenty-Minute Oracle Nobody in Jackson Hole today needed a fed funds futures screen. They needed a Ouija…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 19 days agoTHE FED FINALLY GOT ITS ANSWER, AND IT WASN'T THE ONE ANYONE WANTEDTHE FED FINALLY GOT ITS ANSWER, AND IT WASN'T THE ONE ANYONE WANTED Four months. That's how long core PCE has now…thauerbyi (61)in #article • 21 days agoThe Piggy Bank HeistThe Piggy Bank Heist Scott Bessent found a trillion dollars in the couch cushions and decided the responsible thing…